Methane seeps from Arctic sea bed OMG

BBC News: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8205864.stm

天文學者發現反斗星 WASP-17b

BBC News: New planet displays exotic orbit

Martian Methane, and Britons keep their Tech

References:

• Martian Methane created and destroyed more rapidly than expected: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8186314.stm
• Britons cut back on Dinner, Holidays, DIY, but are spending more on Tech: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8186127.stm
  

Tesla's dream

Nicholas Tesla's dream of powering electrical appliances wirelessly has been demonstrated in a conference in Oxford, in a small scale, by a US firm called Witricity.

Reference: BBC News: Wireless power system shown off http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/8165928.stm

It Never Fails to Amaze

The Eagle landed on the moon on 20 July 1969, exactly forty years ago.

Further reading:

• Apollo missions:http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8150559.stm

Ron Paul on the Federal Reserve and Its Failure to Protect the Consumer

Financial Services Hearing, 16 July 2009

Youtube:

• Opening statement: "Federal Reserve Inflation Wipes Out The Middle Class, Protects The Wealthy"
  
• Hearing: Ron Paul Questions Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke at Financial Services Hearing 7/16/09

Note that "core inflation" doesn't take into account the prices of food and energy.

Further reading:

• Ron Paul
  

Copernicium, Swearing and Moon-Weavers

Element 113 has been named Copernicium. Swearing helps relieve pain. A fresh graduate from Boston U and a team of old ladies knitted the computer for the moon-landing Apollo 11 mission.


Further reading:

• BBC News: New element named 'copernicium'
• http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8147170.stm
• http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/8148730.stm
  

Herschel's first light

NASA's Herschel Space Telescope has sent back its first lights even when it is still being set up, calibrated and fine tuned.

Further reading:

• http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8143447.stm
• http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=ten-telescopes-galileo
  

2Q, Oil and Cement

More than confirming the rumour, Goldman-Sachs posted 3.44B profit. The truth behind quantitative easing is out.

On Thursday China will report their GDP and google (goog)their earnings for the second quarter.



Crude stays below 60. Local analysts (apple daily today, HKEJ last week) are after refineries [ CNOOC (HKG:0833) and Sinopec (HKG:0386)], with cement (中國建材, HKG:3323) thrown in for good measure.


Google Finance:

• http://www.google.com.hk/finance?q=0883
• http://www.google.com.hk/finance?q=0386
• http://www.google.com.hk/finance?q=3323

HKEJ:

• The great american bubble machine, Rolling Stone issue 1082-83, Matt Taibbi. - how GS engineered market manipulations
  

特首曾蔭權暗指中國無法治?

曾蔭權暗指中國無法治?
Bow-tie Tsang implied that China had no Rule Of Law?

7月7號立法會特首答問大會上，關於北京打算喺2020年喺上海建成國際金融中心，煲呔咁講：

「...香港嘅軟力量都好厲害，呢啲包括法治、普通法嘅制度...」

我聽到好想問清楚，
1. 咁喺咪指大陸無法治？普通法喺咪高人一等？阿爺聽到會點諗？

2. 法治好似陽光空氣，係人生嘅必需品，但用得耐就會好似魚唔記得自己喺水中。其實有無人聽過啲民主發達國一日到黑講自己嘅優勢係「有法治」，點好點好？

會議紀錄：

• http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/200907/07/P200907070255.htm

睇埋「外國勢力」點講：

• 2005年美國參議院外交委員會上嘅報告 http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=17073

屯門醫院主診醫生謬用統計數據

屯門醫院主診醫生謬用統計數據
Statistical Fallacy of a Tuen Mun Hospital Medical Professional

今日蘋果日報頭條係《腳掌骨折打石膏枉死
41歲婦人血塊攻心肺不治》。一個41歲身強體壯嘅陳姓阿姨，喺浴室跣親，腳打石膏打出靜脈血塊，向醫生投訴腳痛，重新打過，仍然心口痛、心跳快，但醫生淨係幫佢換止痛藥,，虚報「no pain」；結果血塊入心肺，不幸栓塞致死。

事後佢丈夫去醫院追問，結果「主診醫生話打石膏導致肺栓塞(pulmonary embolism)機會接近零，好罕有，呢個係意外」。

呢度好明顯係濫用統計數字。統計學上有條件機率(conditional probability)；當你有新資訊時，你以前計出嘅機率就失效，要重新計過。舉個例，通常你返工車程只使卅零分鐘，但今日就例外(水浸+地鐵冇電)，你老婆話：「嘩！外面好塞車，早d 出門口，咪遲到！」你就話：「邊會？幾廿年我從來未遲過到。咁嘅機會接近零，好罕有。」結果你遲到，就話：「呢樣係意外。」

有乜唔妥？就係當有新資訊、徵兆（見到塞車、病人嗌痛）時，你嘅機率就要重新估計，原本好微嘅機會都有可能變到可觀。

其實講到底係好簡單嘅道理，讀過咁多書嘅醫生點解唔識？

醫生最基本嘅工夫係診斷，其實就係風險、機率估計，憑經驗推算最可能嘅情況，再對症落藥，雖冇百份百準，但就要盡可能客觀。咁基本嘅機率計錯，明顯係失職，唔係意外。

原報導：

• http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/template/apple/art_main.php?iss_id=20090706&sec_id=4104&art_id=12955207

參考：

• 條件機率 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability
• Bayesian Probability http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_probability
  
• 機艙症候羣 http://www.nytimes.com/1993/10/01/style/01iht-frequent.html